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編者按：歐亞經濟論壇2022年年會於5月26日在吉爾吉斯首都比什凱克舉行，俄羅斯總統普京視頻致辭，來自歐亞經濟聯盟國家的2500多名官員學者與社會人士參加。在主題為「歐亞經濟聯盟與未來的國際夥伴互動」分論壇上， 中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）執行院長王文受邀做《建新的中俄鐵路，加速歐亞一體化》的主題發言，受到在場的廣泛認可。 俄羅斯頂級智庫瓦爾代俱樂部官網以英文、 俄文方式於6月10日刊發了此次發言內容。現將相關現場視頻與內容中英文版推薦如下。
王文在歐亞經濟論壇2022年年會分論壇發表主題演講的現場視頻
現在比任何時候都更需要中俄務實合作的拓展。在中俄新疆交界處修建一條新的中俄鐵路，是拓展中俄務實合作的新槓桿。
在中俄兩國4300公里的邊境線上，有三條貨物運輸的國際鐵路路線，琿春-卡米索維亞、滿洲里-外貝加爾斯克路線、綏芬河-格羅捷闊沃路線，其中後兩條的過貨量幾乎占了中俄鐵路過境貨物量的全部。而在中國西部的新疆阿勒泰地區與俄羅斯阿爾泰邊疆區54公里的接壤處，卻沒有鐵路連接，這成為限制中俄貿易與經濟合作的瓶頸。
在中國這一邊，鐵路網已延伸至阿勒泰市，只需要再延伸180公里就可到中俄邊境。鐵路口岸可選在禾木縣吉克普林，那裡平均海拔2500米，地勢相對平坦，距離中俄邊境約50公里。
在俄羅斯一邊是阿爾泰邊疆區。該區的比斯克市往南離俄中邊境僅370公里，往北則可連入新西伯利亞鐵路。阿爾泰邊疆區是俄羅斯重要的商品糧和畜牧業基地。與其相鄰的克麥羅沃州工業發達，煤炭總產量占俄羅斯的50%以上。
從技術上看，從俄羅斯的比斯克到中國的阿勒泰，修建這條約550公里的鐵路，對擁有超過20萬公里鐵路里程的中俄兩國來說，並不是難事。
如果這條鐵路修建成功，至少有三層重大意義。
第一，將會極大增強中俄戰略協同合作的深度以及歐亞經濟一體化的進程。這條鐵路將成為一條重要的戰略通道，推動維護與鞏固兩國產業鏈供應鏈的安全。
第二，將會緩解當前中歐班列的壓力。目前中歐班列已趨於飽和，2021年開行15000餘列，其中50%以上都通過新疆霍爾果斯出境，經哈薩克到達歐洲，承載量已相當大，影響下一步的增長，急需要一條新的鐵路來緩解哈薩克方面的壓力。
第三，將會極大促進俄羅斯與中國的區域發展。俄羅斯經濟重心在歐亞大陸的西部，中國經濟重心在歐亞大陸的東部。這條鐵路對中俄兩國而言，都會起到經濟發展再平衡的作用。以中國為例，新疆對俄貿易僅僅占中俄貿易的9%，新的中俄鐵路將極大提升新疆在中國新發展格局中的地位。
目前中俄兩國的地方政府與鐵路公司都熱切希望修建這條新的中俄鐵路。從公開新聞報道中得知，俄羅斯鐵路公司、阿爾泰邊疆區、克麥羅沃州、西伯利亞州政府對此都十分期盼。中國新疆對鐵路選線和口岸選址都進行了初步勘察，認為建設該項目技術層面沒有大的障礙。
現在最大的障礙在於兩國中央政府的戰略意志。在國際輿論壓力以及雙方中央政府都有更緊要的工作日程下，如何將雙方地方政府與企業層面的意願升級為國家意志，顯得非常關鍵。
還有一個障礙是對環境的影響評估。如果修建這條鐵路，會經過喀納斯國家自然保護區與阿爾泰自然保護區。想要建設這條鐵路，需要兩國對各自環境保護法律進行修正，還必須在施工時儘可能少地影響環境，是最大的難點。
其實，新中俄鐵路的修建難度，折射了中俄務實戰略合作與歐亞一體化進程的關鍵難點。困難不是來源於資金、技術、人力或地方政府的意願，而是在於戰略意志力。
相信在兩國中央政府的共同努力下，這條新中俄鐵路一定能夠在不久的將來啟動並正式開通。那樣歐亞大陸經濟合作將是另一番盛況。
以下為英文版
Build a New China-Russia Railway to Accelerate Eurasian Integration
By Wang Wen
英文刊在6月10日俄羅斯頂級智庫瓦爾代俱樂部官網
The expansion of China-Russia practical cooperation is needed now more than ever. The construction of a new China-Russia railway at the border of Xinjiang is a new lever to expand practical cooperation between China and Russia.
Along the 4,300km border between China and Russia, there are three international railway routes for cargo transportation, Manzhouli – Zabaikalsky line, Suifenhe – Grodekovo line and Hunchun – Kamyshovaya line, among which the Manzhouli - Zabaikalsky line and Suifenhe - Grodekovo line account for almost all the transit cargo volume of China-Russia railway. However, there is no railway connection at the 54km junction between Altay Prefecture of Xinjiang in western China and the Altai Republic of Russia, which has become a bottleneck limiting trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China.
On the Chinese side, the railway network already has been extended to Altay city and only needs another 180km to reach the Russian-Chinese border. The railway port can be located in Jikepulin, Hemu, where the average altitude is 2,500 meters and the terrain is relatively flat, about 50 kilometers from the Russian-Chinese border.
On the Russian side is the Altai Republic. The city of Biysk lies only 370 kilometers to the south of the Russia-China border and is connected to the Novosibirsk railway to the north. it is situated in the Altai Krai, an important base of commodity grain and animal husbandry in Russia. The neighboring Kemerovo is industrially developed and accounts for more than 50% of Russia's total coal production.
Technically, the construction of this approximately 550 km railway from Russia's Biysk to China's Altay is not difficult for both countries, which have more than 200,000 km of track.
If this railway is built successfully, it will have at least three levels of great significance.
First, it will greatly enhance the depth of China-Russia strategic coordination and cooperation as well as the process of Eurasian economic integration. The railway will serve as an important strategic corridor to safeguard and consolidate the security of the industrial and supply chains of both countries.
Second, it will relieve the pressure on the current China-Europe freight trains. The current China-European Liner has tended to saturate, with more than 15,000 trains running in 2021, of which more than 50% are outbound through Xinjiang Horgos and reach Europe via Kazakhstan. The capacity of the existing railway is already large enough to affect further growth, and a new railway is urgently needed to relieve the pressure on Kazakhstan side.
Third, it will significantly promote the regional development of Russia and China. The center of gravity of the Russian economy is in the west of Eurasia, China's economic center of gravity is in the east of Eurasia. The railway will play a role in rebalancing the economic development of both countries. In China, for example, Xinjiang's trade with Russia accounts for only 9% of Russian-Chinese trade. The new China-Russia railway will greatly enhance Xinjiang's position in China's new development landscape.
At present, local authorities and railway companies of both countries are keen to build the new Russian-Chinese railway.According to public press reports, the Russian Railways, the Altai Republic, the Altai Krai, Kemerovo and Siberia are all looking forward to the new railway. China's Xinjiang province has conducted preliminary surveys of both railway alignment and site of the crossing, and found no major technical obstacles to the construction of the project.
The biggest obstacle now lies in the strategic will of the central governments of both countries. Under the pressure of international public opinion and the more pressing work agendas of both central government, it is crucial to upgrade the will of both local governments and businesses to national will.
Another obstacle is environmental impact assessment. If the railway is built, it will pass through the Kanas National Nature Reserve and Altai Nature Reserve. To build the railway would require both countries to amend their respective environmental protection laws, and the construction must affect the environment as little as possible, which is the biggest difficulty.
In fact, the difficulty of building the new China-Russia railway reflects the key difficulties in China-Russia practical strategic cooperation and the process of Eurasian integration. Difficulties do not come from capital, technology, manpower or the will of local governments, but from strategic willpower.
It is believed that with the joint efforts of the central governments of the two countries, the new China-Russia railway will be launched and officially opened in the near future. Then Eurasian economic cooperation would be a different story.
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中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資向中國人民大學捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。
作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4個中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。
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