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編者按：5月6日晚，由中國公共外交協會與中國人民大學主辦，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院承辦的「求和平、促發展：全球20國智庫在線對話會」成功舉辦。外交部副部長樂玉成作特別演講並現場問答。英國前商務大臣文斯·凱布爾（Vince Cable）作主題演講，以下為中英文講話實錄：
本文主要討論經濟安全，因為戰爭以經濟的方式在影響世界上的大多數人。
文斯·凱布爾5月6日會議發言視頻（中英雙語字幕）
感謝論壇邀請我發言。
相信大家都認真聽取了樂玉成部長的重要講話，並且認識到為了應對世界目前所處的危險境地，我們需要一個新的安全框架。
這種危險起源於當前的俄烏軍事衝突，特別是當今世介面臨核武器的危險。我上周非常高興地與劉曉明大使會談，他目前正在為中國進行穿梭外交，目的是實現危機的和平解決。
然而，安全並不僅僅是一個軍事問題，它還存在於經濟層面。我的發言將主要討論經濟安全。
戰爭以經濟的方式影響世界上的大多數人：經濟制裁會產生影響，如果石油和天然氣供應被切斷，這種影響就會加劇；原材料供應的中斷會產生影響，特別是烏克蘭作為糧食的主要出口國。
戰爭和新冠疫情對供應鏈的持續破壞正在形成一種有害的經濟循環：經濟復甦遭到破壞，並迫使價格上漲。通貨膨脹反過來又促使人們轉向更高的利率，特別是在美國，這反過來又增加了擁有美元債務的國家的壓力。
許多新興市場和最貧窮的國家的前景是嚴峻的。在某些情況下，由於食品價格上漲，很難看到他們將如何養活自己的人民。出口疲軟、進口成本上升和更高的債務還導致這些國家的支付能力下降。
在這種情況下，世界上的超級大國——中國、美國和歐盟——在引導世界經濟向更好的方向發展方面承擔著重要的責任。
就在十多年前，正是中國的經濟增長和二十國集團商定的刺激計劃，有效防止了金融危機後的全球經濟崩潰。
然而我們現在的情況要糟糕得多。隨著各國退回到自給自足和冷戰心態，合作變得更加困難。特別是在特朗普政府的保護主義舉措之後，全球貿易制度和世界貿易組織變得更加脆弱。
我建議西方國家和中國在幾個領域放下目前的冷戰言論和行動，建立共同事業。目前由印度尼西亞擔任主席的二十國集團是一個很好的論壇，可以商定以下這些原則：
首先，有必要制定一項行動計劃，處理以非洲為中心的新興市場特別是低收入國家的債務問題。像衣索比亞這樣的國家正面臨著嚴重的風險。目前，西方債權人如果看到中國銀行和其他債權人獲得了主要利益，就會扣留救濟。反過來，如果西方債權人不合作，中國債權人也有各種動機不合作。巴黎俱樂部和倫敦俱樂部等機構將需要重新配置，以適應中國作為大國和債權人的參與。而這個問題是緊迫的。
第二，一個關鍵的優先事項是保持和擴大一個開放的貿易體系。貿易保護主義以及經濟制裁可能會失敗，正如同其未能阻止義大利對衣索比亞的入侵和日本對中國的入侵一樣。這些第二次世界大戰的里程碑，與今天有著令人擔憂的相似之處。
重建一個開放的、基於規則的體系顯然必須反映中國成為世界上最大貿易國的事實。理想情況下，這應該通過世界貿易組織來實現，但在亞太地區已經有一些重要的和有前途的國際機制，其中RCEP的主要成員是中國，而英國和中國都已申請加入CPTPP。
第三個有必要開展合作的領域是在關鍵的國際公共產品方面，比如應對氣候變化。歐洲戰火紛飛的事實並沒有削弱全球變暖帶來的持續的生存威脅。近期為數不多的積極進展之一，是在英國格拉斯哥舉行的第26屆締約方大會峰會。中國和美國達成協議，認為即使在其他政治問題上存在分歧，也應共同努力應對氣候變化。這場戰爭帶來的唯一可能的好處，是向我們證明了減少對煤炭、石油和天然氣依賴的重要性。
最後，在國際局勢非常緊張的時候，保持對話是至關重要的。主辦方創建了一個在線論壇來開展對話，對此我表示祝賀。
以下為英文版
文斯·凱布爾
Thank you warmly for your invitation to speak.
I am sure we all listened carefully to the Minister’s important speech and its recognition of the need for a new security framework to deal with the perilous position that the world is now in.
The peril originates in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war which now rages, and in particular the threat by Russia to use nuclear weapons. I was especially pleased last week to meet Ambassador Liu Xiaoming who is currently engaging in shuttle diplomacy for China with the aim of achieving a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Security is however not simply a military matter but has an economic dimension. And I will confine my remarks to that aspect.
Most of the world is experiencing the war through its economic impacts: the effect of economic sanctions, which could intensify if or when oil and gas supplies are cut, and the disruption to raw material supplies, especially of food of which Ukraine is a major exporter.
The combination of the war and the continued disruption to supply chains from the Covid pandemic are creating a toxic economic brew: undermining recovery and forcing up prices. Inflation in turn is prompting to move to higher interest rates, especially in the USA and that in turn and that adds to the pressures on countries with dollar debt.
The outlook for many emerging markets and the poorest countries is grim. In some cases, it is difficult to see how they will feed their people as food prices rise and there is a diminished ability to pay as a result of weaker exports, rising import costs and higher debt service .
In these circumstances there is a heavy responsibility on the world’s superpowers – China and the USA and the EU - to show leadership in steering the world economy to a better place.
Just over a decade ago, it was Chinese growth together with the stimulus package agreed by the G20 which prevented a global economic collapse in the wake of the financial crisis.
We are now currently in a much worse position. Cooperation is weaker as countries retreat into self-sufficiency and a cold war mentality. After the protectionist actions of the Trump administration, in particular, the global trade regime and the World Trade Organisation is much weaker.
I would suggest several areas in which Western countries and China can and should put aside the current cold war rhetoric and actions and establish common cause. The G20, currently chaired by Indonesia, is a good forum to agree the principles.
First, there is a need for an action plan to deal with emerging market and particularly low-income debt centred on Africa. Important countries like Ethiopia are at serious risk. At present Western creditors will withhold relief if they see the main benefits accruing to Chinese banks and other creditors. Chinese creditors, in turn, have every motive not to cooperate if Western creditors will not do so. Institutions like the Paris Club and London Club will need to be reconfigured to accommodate China’s participation as a major power and creditor. And this problem is urgent.
Second, a key priority is to maintain and enlarge an open trading system. The collapse into trade protectionism together with the use of economic sanctions - which failed – to stop the Italian invasion of Ethiopia and Japan’s invasion of China - were milestones on the road to the Second World War and bear a worrying similarity to today.
The reestablishment of an open, rules-based system must obviously reflect China’s emergence to be the world’s largest trading power. Ideally this should take place through the World Trade Organisation but there are important and promising groupings in the Asia-Pacific of which the RCEP has China as a leading member and the CPTPP which the UK and China have both applied to join.
A third area of necessary cooperation is in respect of key international public goods like the containment of climate change. The fact that war is raging in Europe does not diminish the continued existential threats resulting from global heating. One of the few positive developments in the recent past was the agreement at the COP 26 summit in Glasgow, the UK, that China and the United States should work together even while there is disagreement on other, political, issues. The war has, if anything, underlined the importance of reducing dependence on coal, oil and gas.
To conclude, it is crucially important, at a time of great international tension, to maintain dialogue.My congratulations to Renmin University for creating a forum where dialogue can take place.
//人大重陽
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RDCY
中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資向中國人民大學捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。
作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4個中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。
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