如奧運不能進行,日本會承受多大經濟損失?誰會是最大受害者?

2020-03-16     英語罐頭



(〜 ̄ ̄)〜


英語罐頭

本文是我的第31篇雙語精讀


新冠疫情的出現,不僅讓年前的我們猝不及防,同時也讓近端時間疫情爆發的國外猝不及防。對於今年要舉辦奧運會,且早已投入不可挽回的巨額成本的日本來說,這次的疫情確實讓他們非常頭疼。


已經投入的錢不能拿回來,因此對於日本來說,非常期待奧運能如期進行,然而處於疫情高峰期來看,若有一點閃失,大規模的惡性傳染時間或許不可避免,可謂進退兩難。


CNN近日採訪了日本的日本奧林匹克大臣橋本聖子,並對日本奧利匹克運動會的相關經濟情況,作了一篇詳細報道。



報道從奧運的經濟成本開始說起:


The economic costs of Tokyo 2020

2020年東京奧運的經濟成本


Canceling the Games would be unprecedented in peacetime.

在正常情況下,是不會出現取消奧運會這種事情的。


The cost of hosting, organizers said in December, was some 1.35 trillion yen ($12.35 billion) but, according to Reuters, that figure did not include the cost of moving the marathon and walking events from Tokyo to Sapporo to avoid the summer heat.

就在上一年的12月份,奧運組織者表示,這次賽事的舉辦大概花費了1.35萬億日元(120.35億美元,大概860億元人民幣)。然而,根據路透社之前的報道表示,這個數據仍未包含由於夏天炎熱,而將馬拉松以及競走比賽遷移到札幌的成本費用。


According to Reuters, Japan's Board of Audit put government spending on the Games between 2013 and 2018 at 1.06 trillion yen ($9.81billion). Sponsors, insurers and broadcasters have also committed billions to the Games.Professor Matheson believes the truer sum is likely to be $25 billion, a vast majority of which has already been spent on large-scale infrastructure projects such as transportation networks, hotels and new venues.

根據路透社報道,日本審計委員會在2013至2018年期間,促使政府在奧運籌備上花費了1.06萬億日元(98.1億美元)。而相應的,贊助商,保險公司以及協會也同樣為賽事承諾了十億級的美金。馬瑟森教授表示,最正確的成本統計大概在250億美元左右(,大約1.7千億人民幣),龐大的開銷早已被花費在大型的基建設施項目,例如說交通網絡設施,酒店以及新的體育場館中。


"Whether the Games go on or not, most of this investment is a sunk cost at this point," Professor Matheson said."If you were to cancel the Olympics, you would be able to avoid some of the costs, such as billion dollars of security, if Tokyo's security costs were similar to London, but the biggest cost is all of the infrastructure and most of that spending has already taken place."

「不管賽事是否如期進行,在這個時間點上,大部分的收入早已變成沉沒陳本」,馬瑟森教授表示。「假如奧運會被取消,日本將有可能避免一些額外的開銷,按照倫敦奧運會在安保花費上來看,日本也是如此的話,將會節省億級的成本。然而,像基礎建設以及其他的龐大投資早已花出去了。」



If the Tokyo 2020 was canceled, who'd be the losers?

假如2020年東京奧運被取消,誰將會是最大的受害者?


Professor Matheson points to the IOC and the local organizing committee as being among the biggest losers in the event of cancellation, though both organizations will be insured."This isn't Delta Airlines, where we cancel a bunch of flights but once we solve the problem things are back to normal," he said, describing the Olympics as "totally non-diversified."

馬瑟森教授指出,即使相關的組織都會被擔保,但國際奧委會(IOC)以及地方組織委員會將會是這賽事取消中最大的受害者。「這並不是達美航空,即使被取消掉一大堆的航班,只要問題一旦解決,就能回到日常運營,」他講奧運稱為「非分散型投資(只能把雞蛋放進一個籃子)」。


Another big loser would be Tokyo's hospitality industry.

另一個受害者將會是東京的服務行業。


"If we look at other host cities, the total number of international tourists was likely to increase by 100,000 visitors and those visitors were paying much higher room rental rates than the people they would have been replacing," said Matheson."That's potentially at least hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions, in lost revenue for the hospitality industry and that's probably not insurable."

「假如我們將目光轉向其他的東道主城市,大約統計來看,將會增加大約10萬的國際旅客,而這些會支付高昂旅店費用的旅客將會消失,」馬瑟森教授表示。「這潛在的收入至少有數億美元,即使達不到十億,服務業因此而損失的財務收入與其本身行業都講不會得到擔保。」


And then there are the sponsors, Matheson adds: "If the Games don't go on at all, there are $3 billion worth of sponsorships that have been purchased and it's hard to know where that money goes if the Games don't all go on."That is a loss to someone, that's either a loss to broadcasters or it's a loss to the IOC, because they don't get the revenue from the contract, or it's a loss to an insurer.

另一方面,對於眾多的贊助商來說,馬瑟森補充到「假如賽事不能靜心,已有的30億美元贊助早已被花銷出去,而對應的,這成本也會蕩然無存。「這對於個人來說會是一種損失,甚至對於體育協會或者國際奧委會來說都是一種損失,因為他們因此失去了賽事所帶來的財務收入。」




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文章來源: https://twgreatdaily.com/zh-sg/rIrN8HABiuFnsJQVDduX.html