清華論壇第104講
暨清華五道口全球名師大講堂
主題
巴西亞馬遜地區的碳價格和森林保護（Carbon Prices and Forest Preservation over Space and Time in the Brazilian Amazon）
演講嘉賓
何塞·A·舍因克曼，哥倫比亞大學Charles and Lynn Zhang經濟學教授
演講語言
英文
時間
2023年10月8日 10:00-11:30
地點
清華大學五道口金融學院1-200教室
主辦單位
清華大學五道口金融學院、清華大學學術委員會
摘要
巴西亞馬遜地區一部分土地是森林，其他部分用於以養牛業為主的農業活動。森林砍伐及造林會改變碳的排放及吸收量，從而影響全球氣候。這些土地使用的社會和私人生產力在亞馬遜地區的不同地點有所不同。在這項研究中，我們建立並分析了一個社會有效土地分配的空間及動態模型，來為制定特定政策提供基準參考。我們將牲畜價格的隨機演變納入模型，並探討了特定地區生產率的模糊性對社會有效政策的影響。最後，我們評估了對空間及動態土地使用分配施加不同社會碳排放成本的後果。我們的研究結果表明，通過設置合適的每噸凈二氧化碳轉移水平，可使巴西找到未來30年內大量吸收溫室氣體的最優政策。這表明熱帶森林的管理在不久的將來可以在減緩氣候變化方面發揮重要作用。
Some portions of land in Brazilian Amazon are forested, and other portions used in agricultural activities, principally cattle-ranching. Deforestation (reforestation) emits (captures) carbon, which has consequence for the global climate. The social and private productivities for these alternative land uses vary across locations within the Amazon region. In this research, we build and analyze a spatial/dynamic model of socially efficient land allocation to establish a benchmark for ad-hoc policies. We show how to incorporate the stochastic evolution of cattle prices, and we explore the consequences of ambiguity in the location-specific productivities on the socially efficient policy. Finally, we assess the consequences of imposing alternative social costs of carbon emissions on the spatial/dynamic allocation of land use. Our results indicate that with modest transfers per ton of net CO2, Brazil would find it optimal to choose policies that produce substantial capture of greenhouse gasses in the next 30 years, suggesting that the management of tropical forests could play an important role on climate change mitigation in the near future.
嘉賓簡介
何塞·A·舍因克曼（José A. Scheinkman）現任哥倫比亞大學Charles and Lynn Zhang經濟學教授、普林斯頓大學西奧多·威爾斯"29教席經濟學名譽教授以及美國經濟研究局研究員。此前，舍因克曼曾任芝加哥大學經濟系Alvin H. Baum傑出服務教授和系主任、法國Blaise Pascal研究教授、法蘭西公學院訪問教授，高盛集團金融策略部副部長，以及《政治經濟學雜誌》聯合主編。他曾擔任數家金融機構的顧問，並在Cosan Limited董事會任職，該公司為紐約證券交易所上市公司，主要從事巴西的糖、乙醇和能源的生產和分銷。
舍因克曼是美國國家科學院成員、美國藝術與科學學院院士、美國金融協會院士、計量經濟學會院士、巴西科學院通訊成員，並被巴黎達文西大學授予「榮譽博士」稱號。他於2007年獲古根海姆獎，並於2014年獲得CME-MSRI創新定量應用獎。舍因克曼目前的研究重點是金融市場的投機行為以及流動性增加對金融脆弱性的影響。
José A. Scheinkman is the Charles and Lynn Zhang Professor of Economics at Columbia University, Theodore A. Wells 『29 Professor of Economics (emeritus) at Princeton University and a Research Associate at the NBER. Previously, Scheinkman was the Alvin H. Baum Distinguished Service Professor and Chairman of the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, Blaise Pascal Research Professor (France), Visiting Professor at Collège de France, Vice President in the Financial Strategies Group of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and co-editor of the Journal of Political Economy. He has served as a consultant to several financial institutions and serves on the board of Cosan Limited, a NYSE listed company engaged in the production and distribution of sugar, ethanol and energy in Brazil.
Scheinkman is a Member of the National Academy of Sciences, Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Fellow of the American Finance Association, Fellow of the Econometric Society, Corresponding Member of the Brazilian Academy of Sciences, and received a 「docteur honoris causa」 from the Université Paris-Dauphine. He was awarded a John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Fellowship in 2007 and the CME-MSRI Prize in Innovative Quantitative Applications in 2014. Scheinkman’s current research focuses on speculation in financial markets and on the effect of increases in liquidity on financial fragility.
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