Opportunities and challenges for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

《一帶一路報道》記者 李卉嬪

從中國新疆喀什出發，經中巴邊境紅其拉甫口岸從巴基斯坦北部進入巴國，一路穿越高山峽谷、平原丘陵、戈壁荒漠，最後到達南部的瓜達爾港，直通阿拉伯海。這條從喀什到瓜達爾港的經濟大動脈，加強了中巴兩國互聯互通，進一步深化了中巴全天候戰略合作夥伴關係，這就是2013年中巴經濟走廊提出的重要戰略設想。

Through mountains, valleys, plains, hills and Gobi Desert, a journey can be taken from Kashgar in Xinjiang, China to the Gwadar Port in the south of Pakistan to reach the Arabian Sea via Khunjerab Pass, the border between China and Pakistan. This economic artery from Kashgar to Gwadar Port has strengthened the interconnection between China and Pakistan and further enhanced the all-weather strategic partnership between China and Pakistan. This was the important strategic vision proposed during the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2013.

如今6年過去，走廊建設第一階段的能源電力項目和交通基礎設施項目已經完成或正在進行中，為巴基斯坦下一步的經濟發展奠定了良好的基礎。目前，走廊建設進入以產業發展、農業合作、社會民生髮展的新階段，又會面臨哪些機遇與挑戰？

Six years have passed since then, the energy, electricity and transportation infrastructure projects in the first stage of the CPEC construction have been completed or are in progress, laying a solid foundation for Pakistan’s further economic development. Currently, the CPEC construction has entered a new stage of industrial development, agricultural cooperation and social livelihood improvement. What are its opportunities and challenges?

互聯互通要向欠發達地區適當傾斜

Interconnectivity should be inclined properly to the underdeveloped areas

「第一階段很少有項目落地開普省，希望我們在第二階段不會再被落下。」「作為中巴經濟走廊的門戶，吉爾吉特卻少有走廊項目，希望我們地區的經濟能跟隨走廊建設一起發展。」在與白沙瓦、吉爾吉特等地的智庫學者、企業家及商協會組織代表座談時，與會代表急切地提出了自己的意見。走廊建設要實現互聯互通，最基礎的是要通路、通電、通網（訊）和語言相通，而這些在巴基斯坦的發展並不均衡。

「In the first stage, few projects were located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. I hope we will not be ignored in the second stage.」 「Few projects are located at Gilgit, the gateway to the CPEC. I hope our economy can be developed together with the CPEC construction.」 During the discussion with think tank scholars, entrepreneurs and business associations from Peshawar, Gilgit, etc., attendees eagerly put forward their own opinions. In order to realize interconnection, the most fundamental requirements are the access to roads, electricity and network (communication) as well as the removal of language barrier. However, the development of which is imbalanced in Pakistan.

白沙瓦是巴西北部開普省首府，該省與阿富汗接壤，境內多乾燥岩石，工業基礎薄弱且面臨安全挑戰；同樣工業落後的還有西南部地廣人稀的俾路支省，該省多沙漠，地質鬆軟，修路難度大；位於巴北部的吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦地區，與中國新疆接壤，境內多高山，修路極其艱難，20世紀60年代，中國幫助其修建喀喇崑崙公路期間，約有700名中巴建設者為此付出了生命。惡劣的地理、地質條件和不穩定的政治環境，加劇了基礎設施建設的難度。要改變這一狀況，需要中巴雙方攜手尤其是巴方各地方政府重點發力，引進多方資源和力量，來破解制約道路基礎設施及能源電力項目落地的障礙。

Peshawar is the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which is in the northwest of Pakistan. This Province borders Afghanistan. There are lots of dry rocks within this place. Its industrial base is weak and faces security challenges. Balochistan, a sparsely populated province in the southwest, is also backward in industry. Most of this place is desert with loose soil. It makes it hard to build highways and railways. Gilgit-Baltistan, located in northern Pakistan, borders Xinjiang, China, with many mountains and extremely difficult conditions for road construction. In the 1960s when China helped it build Karakoram Highway, about 700 Chinese and Pakistani builders died for it. Poor geographical and geological conditions and unstable political environment have aggravated the difficulty of infrastructure construction. To change this situation, China and Pakistan, especially the local governments of Pakistan, need to cooperate with each other, introduce various resources and forces to overcome the obstacles that restrict the implementation of road infrastructure, energy and power projects.

值得欣慰的是，如今連通巴基斯坦幾個重要城市間的高速公路已基本建成通車，比如伊斯蘭瑪巴德-白沙瓦，伊斯蘭瑪巴德-拉合爾，拉合爾-喀拉蚩的高速公路，巴基斯坦的高速公路網基本形成，大大節省了運輸時間。「我們能明顯感覺到城市間的距離縮短了，這將有利於沿線經濟的發展和人們生活水平的提升。」開普省省長Rashid Aman接受記者採訪時說道。

It is encouraging that the construction of highways connecting several major cities in Pakistan has been basically completed to provide transport services, such as Islamabad-Peshawar, Islamabad-Lahore, Lahore-Karachi highways, and Pakistan’s highway network has been basically formed, greatly saving the time for transportation. 「We can obviously feel that the distance between cities has been shortened, which will be beneficial to the economic development along the roads and the improvement of people’s living standards.」 Rashid Aman, provincial chief of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said in an interview to the reporter.

除了交通基礎設施建設，能源的充足供應也是發展經濟的先決條件。中巴經濟走廊框架下確定了15個能源電力項目，其中10個發電站項目已實現併網發電，解決了絕大部分地區缺電的問題。

In addition to construction of transportation infrastructure, sufficient supply of energy also constitutes the premise of economic development. Under the framework of the CPEC, 15 energy and power projects have been confirmed, of which 10 power station projects have been connected to the grid to generate electricity, solving the problem of power shortage in most areas.

「吉爾吉特有充足的水資源，水電站開發潛力大，真希望中企能在這裡建一個水電站。現在這裡平均每天停電6小時-10小時，很多酒店、大型企業不得不自備發電機，噪音污染、空氣污染十分嚴重。」吉爾吉特一家酒店老闆說道，仿佛為了印證他的話，話音剛落，酒店區域就一片漆黑。對於這個以旅遊業為支柱產業的地區，頻繁停電對酒店的影響十分嚴重。

「Gilgit has sufficient water resources and great potential for hydropower development. I really hope that a hydropower station can be built here during the construction of CPEC. Now the average duration for power outage here is 6-10 hours per day. Many hotels and large enterprises have to prepare their own generators. So noise and air pollution are very severe. 」 A hotel owner in Gilgit said. His words soon came true, the hotel turned completely dark as soon as he finished speaking. Given that tourism is the mainstay industry in this region, frequent power outages have a negative impact on hotels.

在巴基斯坦採訪的20多天裡，記者深入體會了巴國的4G網絡。除首都伊斯蘭瑪巴德、拉合爾等主要城市市區外，其他地方如市郊、北部山區，4G網絡基本覆蓋不到，尤其在吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦山區，甚至連通信信號都沒有。

During the more than 20 days of interviews in Pakistan, the reporter experienced its 4G network. Except in the downtown of major cities such as Islamabad (the capital) and Lahore, 4G network is basically not available in other places such as the suburbs and northern mountainous areas, especially in the Gilgit-Baltistan mountainous areas, where there are no communication signals.

作為巴基斯坦當地的NGO（非政府）組織，SEEDO可以幫助吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦地區的優秀學生申請中國政府設立的「絲路獎學金」，併到中國學習先進的技術知識，畢業後能有一份不錯的工作。申請可以直接在網上操作，但吉爾吉特很多地方不通網絡，網上申請很難進行，只能人工遞交材料，效率低下讓很多吉爾吉特學生遺憾地與留學名額錯過。「我們的很多學生上不了網，甚至都不能及時得到申請獎學金的消息。」SEEDO的總裁Aziz Karim對此深表可惜。

As a local NGO in Pakistan, SEEDO can help outstanding students from Gilgit-Baltistan apply for the Silk Road Scholarship set up by the Chinese government, and learn advanced technical knowledge in China, so that they can find a good job after graduation. The application can be directly operated on the internet, which is, however, not available in many places in Gilgit. Due to that the online application is inaccessible, the materials can only be submitted offline. The inefficiency makes many Gilgit students regretfully miss the opportunity of studying abroad. 「Many students cannot get online and even cannot receive the information of scholarship application in time.」 Aziz Karim, president of SEEDO, said with profound regret.

「中文對我們來說是最重要的外語，如果能在吉爾吉特辦一所孔子學校教授漢語，那就太棒了！」Karim表示，吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦作為中國人進入巴基斯坦的門戶，隨著旅遊業不斷發展，會有越來越多中國人過來，學好中文可以和中國人自如交流，了解中國人的思維方式，將減少語言不通帶來的障礙和誤會。加之被派往中國留學的吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦當地學生，也要求其在一年之內通過漢語四級考試才能繼續留在中國深造，學成歸國後他們也將服務於當地的經濟建設。

「Chinese is the most important foreign language for us. It would be great if a Confucius school could be built in Gilgit to teach Chinese!」 Karim said that, Gilgit-Baltistan is the gateway for Chinese to enter Pakistan, with the continuous development of tourism, more and more Chinese will come here. Learning Chinese well can facilitate the communication with the Chinese and understanding of their way of thinking, which will reduce the obstacles and misunderstandings caused by the language barrier. Local students from Gilgit-Baltistan sent to study in China also have to pass the HSK-4 within one year to stay in China for further study. Upon their return, they will join the local economic construction.

加大以經濟特區為載體的產業合作

Promote industrial cooperation based on the special economic zones

今年5月，巴總理伊姆蘭·汗訪華期間，中巴雙方一致同意，以經濟特區為載體的產業合作將成為中巴經濟走廊建設下一階段的重點。

During Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to China in May this year, China and Pakistan agreed unanimously that industrial cooperation based on special economic zones (SEZs) will be the focus of the next stage of CPEC construction.

受「深圳模式」激勵，2017年巴基斯坦擬在全國範圍內優先建設9個經濟特區，通過稅收優惠和激勵政策促進相關產業發展、經濟增長，創造就業，提振境外投資。

Inspired by the 「Shenzhen Model」, Pakistan plans to give priority to the construction of 9 SEZs in 2017. The development of related industries, economic growth, job creation and overseas investment will be promoted through tax preference and incentive policies.

位於開普省的拉沙卡伊（Rashakai）經濟特區目前由中國路橋公司負責建設開發，有望成為走廊框架下首個落地的工業園區，已制定了10年免徵企業所得稅、運輸費用減免25%等優惠政策以吸引外來投資。

Rashakai Special Economic Zone, located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is currently constructed and developed by the China Road and Bridge Corporation and is expected to be the first implemented industrial zone under the CPEC framework. Preferential policies such as exemption of 10-year corporate income tax and 25% reduction or exemption of transportation expenses have been formulated to attract foreign investment.

目前，巴基斯坦已經形成了一些產業集聚區，如拉合爾（Lahore）海爾工業園的家電產業、錫亞爾科特（Sialkot）的手術用品產業、古吉拉特（Gujarat）的陶瓷產業、費薩拉巴德（Faisalabad）的成衣製造產業等，這些地區已經具備一定的工業發展軟硬體基礎，在這些區域建立經濟特區，只要政策到位，在引進投資方面將更加高效。

At present, some industrial clusters come into being in Pakistan, such as the home appliance industry in Lahore Haier Industrial Park, the surgical supplies industry in Sialkot, the ceramic industry in Gujarat, and the clothing manufacturing industry in Faisalabad. These regions already have a certain software and hardware foundation for industrial development. SEZs in these regions will attract investment more efficiently as long as policies are ready.

經濟特區的成功需要很多條件，包括稅收激勵政策、快速清關程序、完善的當地供應商體系、全球市場以及最重要的港口、鐵路、公路等基礎設施體系。僅稅收激勵這一項巴方就面臨很大的困難，稅收激勵意味著政府在財政收入上的讓步，但巴基斯坦即使在稅率極高的情況下，2018-2019財年稅收收入也僅占GDP比重的10%，財力十分緊張。經濟特區的開發還面臨政府管理方面的挑戰，需要克服低效率的官僚主義、政策的不一致性以及各利益相關方互相扯皮等困難。世行最新報告顯示，目前巴基斯坦營商環境在190個經濟體中僅位列第136名。

The success of SEZs requires many conditions, including tax incentives, fast customs clearance procedures, sound local supplier systems, global market and most importantly, infrastructure systems such as ports, railways and highways. Pakistan is facing great difficulties in tax incentive. Tax incentive means the government’s concession in fiscal revenue. However, even if the tax rate in Pakistan is extremely high, the tax revenue in fiscal year 2018-2019 only accounts for 10% of GDP. The government is short of financial resources. The development of SEZs also faces challenges in government management, and needs to overcome such difficulties such as inefficient bureaucracy, inconsistent policies and conflict among various stakeholders. According to the latest report of World Bank, Pakistan currently ranks 136th among 190 economies in terms of business environment.

以經濟特區為載體的產業合作，在提升內外資聯動的基礎上還可促進出口貿易，增加出口創匯。巴基斯坦礦產資源尤其是寶石資源豐富，農牧產品等產量也很大，如果工業發展好了，將增加這些產品的附加值，提高出口收入。巴基斯坦國內經濟學家普遍認為，巴在國際貿易上表現疲軟，歸根結底還是本國工業化程度太低，陷於「無商品可出口」境地。

Industrial cooperation based on SEZs can boost the linkage between domestic and foreign investment, promote export trade and increase foreign exchange through exports. Pakistan is rich in mineral resources, especially precious stones, and has a large output of agricultural and pastoral products. If the industry is well developed, the added value of these products and the export income will be increased. Pakistan’s domestic economists generally believe that Pakistan’s weak performance in international trade is ultimately due to its low level of industrialization and its plight of 「no commodities to export」.

當然，要發展本地的產業，本地人還需要主動承擔起更多工作和責任。AKRSP總經理穆沙法（Musaffar）就表示，他們幫助吉爾吉特地區脫貧致富，並非是簡單地給他們錢，而是把當地人充分組織起來，傳授他們相關技能，讓他們積極開展農業種植等工作，並讓有能力的婦女也有機會擔任領導（這對巴基斯坦來說是巨大的突破，巴基斯坦政府、企業、組織很少女性成員，更別說女性領導了）。AKRSP是一家幫助農村發展，農民脫貧致富的機構，數據顯示，35年來，吉爾吉特地區貧困人口已經減少一半以上，徹底擺脫了巴基斯坦最窮區域的局面。

In order to develop local industries, local people need to actively undertake more work and responsibilities. Musaffar, General Manager of AKRSP(Aga Khan Rural Support Programme), said that they did not simply give money to help people in Gilgit to get rid of poverty and become rich. Instead, they organized local people, taught them relevant skills, enabled them to actively carry out agricultural cultivation and other work, and allowed capable women to be the leaders (this is a great breakthrough for Pakistan because there are few female members in Pakistani government, enterprises and organizations, not to mention female leaders). AKRSP is an organization that promotes rural development and helps farmers to get rid of poverty and become rich. Data show that in the past 35 years, the poverty population in Gilgit has been reduced by more than half, completely getting rid of the situation of being the Pakistan’s poorest region.

旅遊業急盼中國企業來投資

Yearning for investment in tourism from Chinese enterprises

「近兩年到吉爾吉特地區的遊客明顯增長，估計有一半的遊客來自中國。」正如CPEC（中巴經濟走廊）研究中心主任Saranjam Baig的團隊研究發現，中巴經濟走廊建設給巴基斯坦旅遊業發展帶來了巨大的機遇。隨著巴基斯坦開放度不斷提高，越來越多國際遊客尤其是來自中國的遊客光顧此地。巴方也將旅遊業作為中巴經濟走廊下一階段的發展重點之一。

「The number of tourists to Gilgit has increased significantly in the past two years. It is estimated that half of the tourists come from China.」 According to the research by the team of Saranjam Baig, Director of the CPEC Research Center, the construction of CPEC has brought great opportunities to the development of Pakistan’s tourism. With the ever-increasing openness of Pakistan, more and more international tourists, especially those from China, visit this place. Pakistan also regards tourism as one of the development priorities for the next stage of the CPEC construction.

巴旅遊業融合了多姿多彩文化的建築、汽車、人文風俗以及迤邐的自然風光，將繁忙的喀拉蚩、精緻的拉合爾、「新貴」伊斯蘭瑪巴德、雪山環抱的吉爾吉特串聯起來。隨著「一帶一路」建設和中巴經濟走廊建設的不斷推進，中國人逐漸開始發現巴基斯坦這片尚未被完全開發的旅遊目的地。

Architecture, automobiles and customs with rich cultural heritage and spectacular natural scenery constitute a superb tourist route connecting busy Karachi, delicate Lahore, rising Islamabad, and Gilgit surrounded by snowy mountains. With the construction of the Belt and Road and CPEC, the Chinese gradually discover the unexplored tourist destination of Pakistan.

「我們沒有其他工業，旅遊業是我們的唯一支柱產業，但我們缺乏資金建設高標準的酒店，提供不了高端服務，中國是我們學習的榜樣，歡迎中國企業來這裡投資。」吉爾吉特地區旅遊協會的代表向中國發出邀請，希望中國企業能來這裡投資餐館、酒店，吸引更多的遊客。

「We don』t have other industries. Tourism is our only pillar industry, but we lack the funds to build high-standard hotels and can』t provide high-end services. China is our role model. Chinese enterprises are welcome to invest here.」 Representatives of the Gilgit Tourism Association hope that Chinese enterprises could invest in restaurants and hotels here to attract more tourists.

在罕薩和吉爾吉特的酒店，記者發現這裡的服務與國際旅遊目的地還有不小的距離。罕薩的酒店位於地下一層，房間的自來水直接引自外面溝渠的流水，渾濁中還帶有不少泥沙。聽當地人穆斯塔法（Mustafa）說，酒店的自來水大都如此，語氣中帶著些不以為意。吉爾吉特的酒店有些像中國的農家樂，一個小院裡只有不到10個房間，環境清幽。

At the hotels in Hunza and Gilgit, the reporter found that, the service here still has a long way to go, compared with that of the international tourist destinations. The hotels of Hunza are located at the ground floor. The tap water with sediment is from the running water in the ditch outside. Mustafa, a local resident, regarded it as normal because the tap water of hotels is always like this. Judging from his tone, it seems like he did not see this as a big problem. The hotels of Gilgit are somewhat like the agritainment in China. There are less than 10 rooms in a small courtyard. The environment is quiet and beautiful.

7月-8月是吉爾吉特旅遊旺季，但除了零星的自駕遊客，總人數並不多。吉爾吉特與中國沒有直飛航班，機場很小，飛機小到僅能容納幾十人，因為要不停地穿過山脈，經常會遇到天氣不好航班取消的情況。如果運氣不好，可能還會因此滯留幾天。「希望中巴兩國能開通喀什直達吉爾吉特的航線和大巴，這樣很多到喀什旅遊的人也可以順帶到我們這裡了。」旅行協會代表建議道。

July and August are the peak season for tourism in Gilgit. But there are not many people except for some self-driving tourists. There are no direct flights between Gilgit and China. Gilgit Airport is small and the airplanes can only accommodate a few dozen people. Since the planes have to cross mountains continuously, the flights are often canceled in case of bad weather. In case of star-crossed conditions, you may be detained for several days. 「I hope the flights and buses between Kashgar and Gilgit can be opened, so that many tourists in Kashgar can come here too.」 Representatives of the Gilgit Tourist Association suggested.

鑒於巴基斯坦地理優勢明顯，人口基數大，中巴經濟走廊建設蘊藏極大的發展機遇，但對於投資者來說，機遇與挑戰是永遠相伴相隨的，看清形勢、謹慎評估風險才有未來的無限可能；而對巴方來說，要發展除了要引進外資，更重要的是修好「內功」，完善自身的基礎條件，靈活調整相關的政策法規以適應經濟發展的需要，才是可持續發展之道。

In view of Pakistan’s obvious geographical advantages and a large population, CPEC construction has great development opportunities. But for investors, opportunities always go hand in hand with challenges, so it is necessary to evaluate the situation and risks. For Pakistan, development requires introduction of foreign investment, but more importantly, its own efforts are needed. It needs to improve its own basic conditions, flexibly adjust relevant policies and regulations to meet the needs of economic development and promote sustainable development.

更多精彩詳見《一帶一路報道（中英文）》

國內統一連續出版物號：CN51-1788/F

國際標準連續出版物號：ISSN2096-2886

郵發代號：62-625

投稿郵箱：[email protected]ｍ

編輯：向雯

審核：彭納

主編：鄧灼