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编者按：5月6日晚，由中国公共外交协会与中国人民大学主办，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院承办的“求和平、促发展：全球20国智库在线对话会”成功举办。外交部副部长乐玉成作特别演讲并现场问答。英国前商务大臣文斯·凯布尔（Vince Cable）作主题演讲，以下为中英文讲话实录：
本文主要讨论经济安全，因为战争以经济的方式在影响世界上的大多数人。
文斯·凯布尔5月6日会议发言视频（中英双语字幕）
感谢论坛邀请我发言。
相信大家都认真听取了乐玉成部长的重要讲话，并且认识到为了应对世界目前所处的危险境地，我们需要一个新的安全框架。
这种危险起源于当前的俄乌军事冲突，特别是当今世界面临核武器的危险。我上周非常高兴地与刘晓明大使会谈，他目前正在为中国进行穿梭外交，目的是实现危机的和平解决。
然而，安全并不仅仅是一个军事问题，它还存在于经济层面。我的发言将主要讨论经济安全。
战争以经济的方式影响世界上的大多数人：经济制裁会产生影响，如果石油和天然气供应被切断，这种影响就会加剧；原材料供应的中断会产生影响，特别是乌克兰作为粮食的主要出口国。
战争和新冠疫情对供应链的持续破坏正在形成一种有害的经济循环：经济复苏遭到破坏，并迫使价格上涨。通货膨胀反过来又促使人们转向更高的利率，特别是在美国，这反过来又增加了拥有美元债务的国家的压力。
许多新兴市场和最贫穷的国家的前景是严峻的。在某些情况下，由于食品价格上涨，很难看到他们将如何养活自己的人民。出口疲软、进口成本上升和更高的债务还导致这些国家的支付能力下降。
在这种情况下，世界上的超级大国——中国、美国和欧盟——在引导世界经济向更好的方向发展方面承担着重要的责任。
就在十多年前，正是中国的经济增长和二十国集团商定的刺激计划，有效防止了金融危机后的全球经济崩溃。
然而我们现在的情况要糟糕得多。随着各国退回到自给自足和冷战心态，合作变得更加困难。特别是在特朗普政府的保护主义举措之后，全球贸易制度和世界贸易组织变得更加脆弱。
我建议西方国家和中国在几个领域放下目前的冷战言论和行动，建立共同事业。目前由印度尼西亚担任主席的二十国集团是一个很好的论坛，可以商定以下这些原则：
首先，有必要制定一项行动计划，处理以非洲为中心的新兴市场特别是低收入国家的债务问题。像埃塞俄比亚这样的国家正面临着严重的风险。目前，西方债权人如果看到中国银行和其他债权人获得了主要利益，就会扣留救济。反过来，如果西方债权人不合作，中国债权人也有各种动机不合作。巴黎俱乐部和伦敦俱乐部等机构将需要重新配置，以适应中国作为大国和债权人的参与。而这个问题是紧迫的。
第二，一个关键的优先事项是保持和扩大一个开放的贸易体系。贸易保护主义以及经济制裁可能会失败，正如同其未能阻止意大利对埃塞俄比亚的入侵和日本对中国的入侵一样。这些第二次世界大战的里程碑，与今天有着令人担忧的相似之处。
重建一个开放的、基于规则的体系显然必须反映中国成为世界上最大贸易国的事实。理想情况下，这应该通过世界贸易组织来实现，但在亚太地区已经有一些重要的和有前途的国际机制，其中RCEP的主要成员是中国，而英国和中国都已申请加入CPTPP。
第三个有必要开展合作的领域是在关键的国际公共产品方面，比如应对气候变化。欧洲战火纷飞的事实并没有削弱全球变暖带来的持续的生存威胁。近期为数不多的积极进展之一，是在英国格拉斯哥举行的第26届缔约方大会峰会。中国和美国达成协议，认为即使在其他政治问题上存在分歧，也应共同努力应对气候变化。这场战争带来的唯一可能的好处，是向我们证明了减少对煤炭、石油和天然气依赖的重要性。
最后，在国际局势非常紧张的时候，保持对话是至关重要的。主办方创建了一个在线论坛来开展对话，对此我表示祝贺。
以下为英文版
文斯·凯布尔
Thank you warmly for your invitation to speak.
I am sure we all listened carefully to the Minister’s important speech and its recognition of the need for a new security framework to deal with the perilous position that the world is now in.
The peril originates in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war which now rages, and in particular the threat by Russia to use nuclear weapons. I was especially pleased last week to meet Ambassador Liu Xiaoming who is currently engaging in shuttle diplomacy for China with the aim of achieving a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Security is however not simply a military matter but has an economic dimension. And I will confine my remarks to that aspect.
Most of the world is experiencing the war through its economic impacts: the effect of economic sanctions, which could intensify if or when oil and gas supplies are cut, and the disruption to raw material supplies, especially of food of which Ukraine is a major exporter.
The combination of the war and the continued disruption to supply chains from the Covid pandemic are creating a toxic economic brew: undermining recovery and forcing up prices. Inflation in turn is prompting to move to higher interest rates, especially in the USA and that in turn and that adds to the pressures on countries with dollar debt.
The outlook for many emerging markets and the poorest countries is grim. In some cases, it is difficult to see how they will feed their people as food prices rise and there is a diminished ability to pay as a result of weaker exports, rising import costs and higher debt service .
In these circumstances there is a heavy responsibility on the world’s superpowers – China and the USA and the EU - to show leadership in steering the world economy to a better place.
Just over a decade ago, it was Chinese growth together with the stimulus package agreed by the G20 which prevented a global economic collapse in the wake of the financial crisis.
We are now currently in a much worse position. Cooperation is weaker as countries retreat into self-sufficiency and a cold war mentality. After the protectionist actions of the Trump administration, in particular, the global trade regime and the World Trade Organisation is much weaker.
I would suggest several areas in which Western countries and China can and should put aside the current cold war rhetoric and actions and establish common cause. The G20, currently chaired by Indonesia, is a good forum to agree the principles.
First, there is a need for an action plan to deal with emerging market and particularly low-income debt centred on Africa. Important countries like Ethiopia are at serious risk. At present Western creditors will withhold relief if they see the main benefits accruing to Chinese banks and other creditors. Chinese creditors, in turn, have every motive not to cooperate if Western creditors will not do so. Institutions like the Paris Club and London Club will need to be reconfigured to accommodate China’s participation as a major power and creditor. And this problem is urgent.
Second, a key priority is to maintain and enlarge an open trading system. The collapse into trade protectionism together with the use of economic sanctions - which failed – to stop the Italian invasion of Ethiopia and Japan’s invasion of China - were milestones on the road to the Second World War and bear a worrying similarity to today.
The reestablishment of an open, rules-based system must obviously reflect China’s emergence to be the world’s largest trading power. Ideally this should take place through the World Trade Organisation but there are important and promising groupings in the Asia-Pacific of which the RCEP has China as a leading member and the CPTPP which the UK and China have both applied to join.
A third area of necessary cooperation is in respect of key international public goods like the containment of climate change. The fact that war is raging in Europe does not diminish the continued existential threats resulting from global heating. One of the few positive developments in the recent past was the agreement at the COP 26 summit in Glasgow, the UK, that China and the United States should work together even while there is disagreement on other, political, issues. The war has, if anything, underlined the importance of reducing dependence on coal, oil and gas.
To conclude, it is crucially important, at a time of great international tension, to maintain dialogue.My congratulations to Renmin University for creating a forum where dialogue can take place.
//人大重阳
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RDCY
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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